CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 07 Nov 06:00 - Tue 08 Nov 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 06 Nov 19:33 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across western and northwestern ireland and western Scotland

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC... upwind of a weak trough over Britain, a broad westerly jet centered along 52 N moves eastward. A developing baroclinic disturbance over the Atlantic Ocean near 30 W is expected to move be located near the northwestern Irish coast ar 18Z and slightly north of the Shetland Islands around 06Z Tuesday morning. A cold mid-level low over western Italy is expected to move eastward and be located over the Adriatic Tuesday morning. Scattered storms are expected near, east and south of the system.

DISCUSSION

...western and northwestern Ireland, western Scotland...
GFS, AFWA MM5, NMM agree on a rapid development of the baroclinic wave into a small deep low pressure area, that may cause gusts in excess of 30 m/s even in absence of deep convection over portions of Ireland and Scotland late on Monday and early Tuesday. Within the low's warm sector, weak CAPE will likely form while around 20 m/s of 0-1 km bulk shear should be present. Hence, some of the mostly linearly organized convective storms that form will probably develop short-lived rotating updrafts capable of producing tornadoes.

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